Bitcoin price closes in on all-time high as political and TradFi tone and tenor shift

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 10% between July 25 and July 29, flirting with the $70,000 resistance level. Despite an initial failed attempt that drove Bitcoin’s price down to $68,000, investor sentiment has completely turned around from three weeks ago, when Bitcoin's price traded below $55,000.

Improved regulatory perspectives and a weaker economy favor Bitcoin

Some market participants argue that the main driver for the recent rally has been political support from leading candidates in the United States presidential election. Others claim that Bitcoin’s demand arises from fear of an impending economic recession.

Solo Ceesay, CEO and co-founder of the Calaxy Web3 wallet, argues that the economy is in bad shape, as credit card defaults reach 12-year highs and new home inventories surpass the 2008 peak. While Solo’s article does not foresee the crisis hitting markets in the short term, it states that 2025 will be “bumpy,” as even “$100,000 still isn’t enough to comfortably raise, feed, and house a family in most places.”

Even if the recession does not immediately impact consumers and the job market, given that the US Federal Reserve is likely to lower the interest rate in the near future, investors fear that the stock market might have peaked. Some analysts point to tech giant Nvidia's 20% drop from its June all-time high as evidence that the initial depression signs of the artificial intelligence hype are showing. Investors are becoming increasingly less confident in the tech sector's capacity to grow.

At the same time, the economy started to display weakness after McDonald's revenues came in lower than market estimates in terms of sales and earnings. The leading global fast-food restaurant chain experienced a 0.7% same-store sales decline in the US, the first negative number in four years. Similarly, Heineken shares plunged 10% after a $103 million quarterly net loss and weak beer sales growth.

Trader and economist Alex Krüger offers a different explanation for the investors’ sudden shift to a more favorable view of Bitcoin. According to Krüger, “Bitcoin has now become a political issue,” likely meaning that candidates are trying to gather political support from the crypto industry. But the economist goes one step further, stating that “politics will be the single most important driver for prices until November.”

It would be misleading to say that the current US government administration or candidate Kamala Harris endorsed Bitcoin or declared support for the crypto industry. The effort by Harris’s team to establish a more constructive dialogue followed a July 26 letter penned by Democratic Representatives and candidates calling for the party to change its “hostility” toward the crypto industry.

The sudden interest from Harris’s camp also followed increased support for their rival, Republican Party nominee and former President Donald Trump, who delivered a keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 27, highlighting his constructive view of the industry. Regardless of the intentions driving the recent improvement on the regulatory front, the perspective is far more constructive.

Bitcoin miners signal strength after initial fear of sell-off

Lastly, Bitcoin’s estimated mining processing power jumped to an all-time high of 667 terahashes per second on July 26, virtually eliminating the concerns caused by April’s halving, when the incentive was reduced by half to BTC 3.125 per block.

Initially, this movement drove some inefficient miners out of the network, causing Bitcoin’s hashrate to drop 16% on July 1, reaching its lowest levels since February.

Traders feared that the reduced profitability would force miners to sell their holdings and cause a ‘death spiral’ as the negative pressure on the BTC price would further drive participants out of the market. However, the most recent surge in the hashrate metric reflects miners' long-term commitment and confidence in the Bitcoin price.

Given the improved scenario in the Bitcoin mining industry, the better regulatory perspective, and Bitcoin’s capacity to act as a hedge against fiat money debasement triggered by weaker economies, the odds for a new all-time high in the near term are increasing.