Donald Trump may not be the champion that crypto advocates hope

The crypto world is, of course, delighted at the U-turn former President Donald Trump has made on cryptocurrency. Notwithstanding his 2019 comment that crypto is "not money," based on "thin air" and "can facilitate unlawful behavior, including the drug trade," and his 2021 statement that Bitcoin “seems like a scam” that he didn’t like “because it's another currency competing against the dollar," Trump is now, unabashedly, all for crypto.

His blockbuster July 27 appearance at a Bitcoin (BTC) conference in Nashville saw him play to the crowd, promising everything from the immediate removal of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler to the appointment of a Bitcoin and crypto advisory council and strategic Bitcoin reserves at the Federal Reserve — should he get reelected. Indeed, there seems little Trump isn’t prepared to promise this bloc of low-hanging voters.

This is a rallying cry for an industry that has been put under immense pressure by US legislators and regulators in recent years. However, Trump's conviction on crypto is likely similar to his stance on electric vehicles: flexible and entirely driven by donations.

Some might refute this by pointing to Trump’s vested interest in crypto, and certainly, that can’t be denied. Indeed, it wasn't long after a financial filing revealed his nonfungible token (NFT) collection had netted around $500,000 in Ethereum (ETH) that he started changing his tune on the asset class. Moreover, Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance also holds a small chunk of his $5 million fortune in Bitcoin valued between $100-250,000.

Surely, skin in the game is always a strong motivator. However, Trump and Vance’s collective crypto skin pales in comparison to that of BlackRock, headed by billionaire and registered Democrat Larry Fink, who now runs the world’s largest BTC spot ETF, which has reached an estimated value of $22 billion since it was approved in January. Or that of JP Morgan, whose CEO Jamie Dimon — another Democrat — has also softened his anti-Bitcoin stance as the bank's BTC holdings continue to swell.

If history tells us anything, what's good for BlackRock and JP Morgan is typically good for the Democrats. Indeed, love or loathe Gensler, it was under his and President Joe Biden’s watch that BTC ETFs were approved, not under Trump — who had plenty of opportunity during his term. In contrast, Trump’s administration oversaw the proposal of a rule from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) that would require crypto firms to dox DeFi users.

Donald Trump loves to talk, but action speaks louder than words. And, to date, Trump’s actions as a businessman and political leader have been antithetical to the mission of Bitcoin — an asset created in 2009 in protest at the rampant money printing of which he is a huge fan. As he told CNN in 2016, his answer to spiraling government debt is more printing (the US never has to default “because you print the money”). He turned the printer on well before Covid-19 hit hard, and later claimed credit for rallying stocks.

Overall, Trump oversaw the third largest spike in government debt during a single administration — beaten only by George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, both of whom were financing wars. And if Trump’s comments regarding Jerome Powell’s conservative interest rate policies are anything to go by, we will see much of the same should he be elected.

None of this is to argue that Biden is a fan of crypto — nor, of course, Senator Elizabeth Warren or Gary Gensler. However, Vice President Kamala Harris’ position is not yet clear. We do know she’s pro-Silicon Valley. A regular at the offices of Meta and Google, she has emphasized the importance of finding a balance between regulation and innovation, and she already has a ringing endorsement from Sheryl Sandberg.

We also know that Harris’s campaign is focused on empowering a young middle class — the demographic that dominates crypto — and so tapping into crypto’s ability to generate wealth for this key voter bloc would make sense. Despite her non-appearance at the conference in Nashville, Harris still seems keen to learn more, with billionaire crypto proponent Mark Cuban revealing that her camp had been in touch. Former White House communications chief Anthony Scarumucci also claimed Harris told him she was "open-minded about crypto." He also seems to believe she will fire Gensler and sideline Warren should she be elected — though that is conjecture.

Harris did not speak at the conference. Notwithstanding comments from organizer David Bailey — who torched Harris on social media — 48 hours is no time to prepare security for an appearance by the vice president in a state where anyone over 18 can carry a handgun just weeks after the head of the Secret Service resigned over an assassination attempt on Trump. Of course Harris didn’t attend.

In short, despite Trump’s bombastic bluster in Nashville, anyone banking on him to save crypto should take a long hard look at the receipts and remember that he is not obligated to keep a single promise to the Winklevoss twins, Michael Saylor or Cathie Wood.

Just as Trump is not likely to get a pro-EV agenda through fossil fuel-loving Republican senators, he is unlikely to pass anything that threatens the banks or the supremacy of the US dollar through them, either. Moreover, he may find it tricky to support an industry in which so many "hard-working Americans" lost billions of dollars through FTX and Celsius. Rather, if and when the crypto industry helps to deliver him back to the White House, Trump will almost certainly refocus on his populist agenda of lowering taxes and — maybe — getting that wall built.

Rather than fiery rhetoric, what we need now is meaningful engagement on key regulatory issues from both Republicans and Democrats. The crypto industry needs clear, well-defined guidelines that are not as restrictive as securities regulations, but that protect retail investors. The best way to do this is to have both parties engaged, and I look forward to seeing some forward-thinking, innovative policies coming from experienced experts and legislators across the board.