Will Trump Visit China in 2025? Prediction Markets Are Betting on It

Prediction markets are split on whether Trump will visit China in 2025 as reports surface of TikTok negotiations and a possible Xi meeting this fall.

A popular Myriad market asks whether Donald Trump will visit China before the end of the year, and traders are split almost 50/50, pricing a roughly 48% chance that the former president sets foot on the mainland.

The Myriad contract resolves “Yes” only if Trump physically enters mainland China—airspace overflights or Hong Kong/Taiwan stopovers don’t count—before the end of the day on December 31. The resolution will be confirmed using official White House releases or AP/Reuters reporting. See the full rules here.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt's parent company, DASTAN.)

Elsewhere, Polymarket lists a “Trump travel in 2025” market where China is among the top destinations, trading around 52% "yes" as of this writing range.

Kalshi—the regulated U.S. event-futures exchange—runs a narrower contract on whether Trump meets Xi Jinping this year, a move that would likely coincide with a formal state visit. Kalshi users are bullish on the prospects, penciling in a 73% change of Trump meeting the Chinese president.

This backdrop makes a 2025 trip a live possibility—exactly the kind of binary event prediction markets are built to price.

Traders watch all three: A leaked advance team trip or confirmed Trump-Xi call can quickly move prices across platforms.

With diplomatic prep accelerating, a Trump trip to China is plausible—and tradable. If you want the purest market on whether he goes, Myriad’s market is the cleanest play. For regulatory-compliant exposure, there’s Kalshi, and for a broader sentiment snapshot, Polymarket’s travel board is worth watching.

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