Morning Minute: Robinhood Pushes Deeper Into Prediction Markets

Vlad Tenev called prediction markets Robinhood's fastest growing revenue line, and they're leaning in with a suite of new features.

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

Robinhood isn’t treating prediction markets like an experiment anymore.

They’re leaning all the way in.

Robinhood announced an expansion of its prediction markets offering, adding new NFL player-performance contracts alongside traditional game outcomes.

Users can now trade on events like touchdowns and yardage totals, beyond just winners and spreads.

The company also introduced “preset combo” contracts, which bundle multiple outcomes from a single game into one trade that only pays out if all conditions are met - effectively a parlay-style product.

Robinhood said custom-built combos, where users create their own bundled outcomes, are planned for rollout in 2026.

The firm also framed prediction markets as a standalone product line, pointing to a growing hub with thousands of live contracts across sports, politics, economics, and cultural events.

And they noted that it’s their fastest-growing revenue line.

“Robinhood is ushering in a new era in which AI and prediction markets will come together to change the future of finance and news.”

“I believe we’re at the very beginning of a prediction market supercycle and as it progresses, we should expect to see adoption and volumes continuing to grow, potentially into the trillions of contracts traded each year.” - Vlad Tenev, Robinhood CEO

“Robinhood and Coinbase going hard on Prediction Markets and every major company looking to adopt one or build a strategy around them.” - Farokh Sarmad, President and Co-Founder of Myriad

Prediction markets are clearly booming.

What’s missing is deep liquidity, distribution, and scale.

Power players like Robinhood leaning in can help solve those issues.

A lot of innovative use cases of prediction markets (i.e. insurance, hedging against bad weather, etc.) are great in theory but not operationally possible right now due to limited market size.

Once these markets are more mature, with more players and deeper liquidity, these kinds of use cases can be unlocked.

So everyone who is pro-prediction market should be cheering this on.

Robinhood shareholders should be cheering this on as well, as the stock popped 3% on the news of their prediction market direction (on a red day) and has jumped 20% since their original announcement.

Robinhood is clearly betting on a prediction market supercycle—let’s see if they can help manifest it into reality…

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

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