Morning Minute: Is Crypto's 4-Year Cycle Over?

Arthur Hayes argues that prior peaks and busts coincided with tightening or easing of fiat liquidity, not the Bitcoin halving date itself.

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

One of the most important and imminent questions for crypto investors - is the 4-year cycle over?

Arthur Hayes says yes.

In hist latest blog “Long Live the King,” Hayes reviews prior peaks and busts and says they coincided with tightening or easing of fiat liquidity, not the halving date itself.

His core thesis is that 2014, 2018 and 2022 drawdowns tracked monetary tightening, while expansions coincided with bull phases.

Looking forward to 2025, he believes that with policy tilting easier and spot-ETF demand now a structural bid, the market’s path should be governed by liquidity cycles.

Which means shallower, liquidity-driven pullbacks rather than a time-boxed bear market.

“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!” - Arthur Hayes in “Long Live the King”

While Hayes can often be verbose and at times hard to follow, his argument in this blog post cuts pretty straight to the point.

He specifically calls out bullish liquidity drivers including:

Overall, that means lower interest rates and a higher money supply.

And that’s a prime environment for Bitcoin to continue to run.

This is exactly in line with the debasement trade logic as well.

And in line with my personal view.

My personal comp for Bitcoin’s near future is the gold run from 2004 to 2010.

Six straight years of up only.

You know what happened in 2004? The gold ETFs were approved.

With this line of thought, 2004 gold = 2024 Bitcoin.

So maybe stop worrying about four-year cycles and let the roaring 20s roar…

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

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