Morning Minute: Crypto Slides into “Extreme Fear” as Bitcoin Tumbles

OG Bitcoin holders selling $40B in the past month certainly isn't helping sentiment, as most are wondering: where is the bottom?

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

Crypto sentiment has collapsed.

Does that mean the bottom is close?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows the market is now in “Extreme Fear” territory with a score around 21.

This marks a dramatic swing from recent “Greed” levels posted just last month and neutral ratings from just a few days ago.

For those unfamiliar, every day the index measures six key signals: volatility, volume/momentum, social media, surveys, dominance and trends.

Right now it reads:

This comes just a day after new data surfaced showing that long-term Bitcoin holders sold ~$40B worth of Bitcoin in October (405,000).

“Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.” - Alternative.ME site

Sentiment often dictates behavior, which in turn influences flows, liquidity, and ultimately price.

So what does this mean for the near term?

Historically, when the index dips deep into fear, it can precede the next leg up, as long as other factors align.

That’s your “buy the fear” signal.

It’s hard to predict what that specific signal will be right now, but be on the lookout.

It might be as simple as monitoring outflows from the OG holders.

They just dumped $40B on the market with only ~$4B in ETF + DAT buy pressure to offset it. And Bitcoin still held at $107k.

That’s bullish.

Once those holders are done selling (or at least take a break), there will be a new foundation for Bitcoin to march upwards.

And once it gets back over $120k or so, the 4-year cycle will be officially broken. That’s the set up to grind higher in 2026.

As for now, expect more time in the fear range.

But this too shall pass…

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

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