US Presidential election now a ‘tossup’ — Polymarket

Polymarket betters wager the outcome of the United States presidential election is now a “tossup,” the crypto predictions platform said in an Aug. 7 post on the X platform. 

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump still has a slight lead at 51%, but Democratic nominee Kamala Harris closely trails him with 48% odds of winning. The balanced odds mark a reversal of fortunes for Trump, who has maintained a strong lead on the platform since June.

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform where users can bet on real-world event outcomes using cryptocurrencies. The estimates are based on upwards of $500 million worth of live bets placed on the platform in a contest to guess the winner of the US presidential election in November.

According to Polymarket, users have bet approximately $67 million on a Trump win and around $54 million on Harris. They’ve also wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on low-probability outcomes with high potential payoffs.

Some $46 million rests on the scenario — which has been ascribed 1% odds — that former First Lady Michelle Obama somehow becomes the 47th US president.

Vice President Harris has been the presumptive Democratic nominee since July, when President Joe Biden decided not to seek another term. Harris officially secured the nomination on Aug. 6.

In national polling, Trump’s lead over Biden expanded dramatically in July after a disappointing debate performance raised questions about Biden’s fitness for another term. That trend reversed sharply after Biden stepped back and endorsed Harris.

Polymarket became a leading crypto betting market during a frenzy of onchain speculation around the US elections. In July, Polymarket exceeded $1 billion in total betting volume, which has since risen to more than $1.1 billion, according to Dune analytics.

Polymarket has been used mainly for speculating on the outcome of political events, but the platform also features prediction markets for crypto, sports, business, and the 2024 Olympic games.

Polymarket has been focused heavily on growth this year, but its founder is reportedly considering implementing fees in the future.