Quantum computers are advancing much faster than scientists expected

Quantum computing is one of those “just around the corner” technologies that has the scientific community split. Tech outfits such as Google and IBM have gone full throttle with both R&D and marketing as if they’re already here while many independent researchers have claimed quantum computers will never work. 

Most people working in the field, however, believe that quantum computers will be able to solve problems that classical computers can’t within the next 10 years.

This is according to a recent survey of 927 people with associations to the field of quantum computing (researchers, executives, press, enthusiasts, etc.) conducted by QuEra. Of those surveyed, 74.9% “expect quantum to be a superior alternative to classical computing for certain workloads” within the next 10 years.

When asked how rapidly the field of quantum computing was advancing, more than half said either “faster than I expected” or “much faster than I expected.” Among academics, that number rose to 55%.

But is the field advancing fast enough? The important question being asked by both enthusiasts and naysayers, is “when will quantum computers be useful?” Unfortunately, the answer is more complicated than you may think.

Quantum expectations

Quantum computers exist. The list of laboratories with functioning quantum systems includes IBM, Google, Microsoft, D-Wave, QuEra, and scores more. There are several functioning quantum computers in both Europe and China.

The problem isn’t whether they exist or not, it’s whether they’re useful and can be scaled. Put a different way: nobody is going to care about quantum computers until they’re profitable, and they won’t be profitable until they can do important things that regular computers can’t.

Back in 2019 theoretical physicist Mikhail Dyakonov penned an op-ed declaring the future of quantum computing a dead end. Titled “The Case Against Quantum Computing,” Dyakonov’s article argued that scientists will never overcome the problems of noise, scalability, and efficiency necessary to give quantum computers a useful advantage over classical computers.

However this point of view doesn’t necessarily reflect the reality of cutting-edge quantum computing research. In 2024, there are scores of teams throughout the world working on myriad individual challenges associated with the development of useful quantum computers.

Much like it would have been impossible to play Grand Theft Auto V on a classical mainframe built in the 1950s, the idea of solving currently intractable computation problems with a quantum computer built in 2019 also has no merit.

Quantum’s problems

The field of quantum computing has changed significantly in the time since Dyakonov published his aforementioned op-ed. Back in 2019, for example, one of the biggest challenges for quantum developers was infrastructure.

One of IBM’s first passes at building a gate-based quantum computer, for example, resulted in a massive, steampunk-looking nest of piping and chips. You’ve probably seen it. It looks like a funky chandelier made of brass and is probably the most common picture associated with news articles about quantum computing.

It also cost millions to build, barely passed the bar for quantum computing, and required a team of physicists and a massive laboratory just to operate it.

Today, in mid 2024, more scientists, labs, businesses, and governments than ever are involved in quantum computing. Advances in error-correcting, fault-tolerance, and infrastructure have led to room-temperature quantum function and numerous examples of quantum advantage.

Quantum’s outlook

It’s not really feasible to compare a quantum computer to a classical one. We probably won’t have personal quantum computers or quantum laptops in the foreseeable future for the same reason we don’t use gas turbine engines to power our televisions.

Quantum computers aren’t being developed to solve simple challenges. They’re designed to solve the computationally complex problems that will still exist once we’ve pushed classical computing to its absolute mathematical limit.

They’re not supposed to replace your iPhone, for example, but one day the weather, traffic, and financial forecasts you look at on its screen could become incredibly more accurate thanks to quantum computers.