Price analysis 8/12: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA

The S&P 500 (SPX) Index rebounded sharply from its intra-week lows to end the week on a flat note. Bitcoin (BTC) also made a similar recovery from its weekly lows to finish with marginal gains of about 1%. The failure of the bears to capitalize on the weakness suggests that the lower levels are attracting buyers.

The bears tried to deepen the pullback on Aug. 12, but the bulls purchased the dip in Bitcoin and are trying to maintain the price above the psychological level of $60,000. Bitcoin’s volatility is keeping traders on the edge. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which hit a low of 17/100 on Aug. 6, rose to 48/100 on Aug. 9 and is again back into the extreme fear zone at 25/100 on Aug. 12.

The next big question is will the recovery sustain? Inflows into the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have been sketchy over the past few days, indicating uncertainty among investors. Another short-term negative is that the institutions seem to have halted their stablecoin purchase, according to onchain analytics platform Lookonchain.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins extend their up move, or will higher levels attract sellers? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index is attempting a recovery that is likely to face resistance at the 20-day exponential moving average (5,393).

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA but finds support at 5,265, it will indicate that the selling pressure has reduced. That will increase the possibility of a break above the moving averages. The index may then climb to 5,566.

Alternatively, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are selling on rallies. A break below 5,265 will increase the risk of a break below 5,119. The next support on the downside is at 5,000.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading below the moving averages for the past few days, indicating that the bears have the upper hand.

The bulls tried to push the price back into the channel on Aug. 8, but the bears held their ground. This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the support line into resistance. If they do that, the index may decline to 102.16.

This negative view will be invalidated if the price turns up and re-enters the channel. That will indicate the markets have rejected the lower levels. The index may then rise to the 50-day simple moving average (104.63).

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin turned down from the moving averages on Aug. 11, indicating that the bears are not willing to give up without a fight.

The $55,724 level is the crucial support to watch out for on the downside. If this level breaks down, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That will open the doors for a fall to $49,000.

On the contrary, if the bulls push the price above the moving averages, it will signal buying on dips. The BTC/USDT pair may then start its march toward $70,000. The sellers are expected to fiercely defend the $70,000 to $73,777 zone.

Ether price analysis

The bulls are finding it difficult to push Ether (ETH) above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $2,753, but they have not allowed the price to dip below $2,500.

If buyers overcome the obstacle at $2,724, the ETH/USDT pair is likely to jump to the breakdown level of $2,850. This level is expected to attract solid selling by the bears, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may reach the 50-day SMA ($3,145).

On the other hand, if the price turns down from $2,850, it will signal that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. That may start a move down to the strong support of $2,500 and then to $2,300.

BNB price analysis

BNB’s (BNB) recovery hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($529) on Aug. 11, indicating that the bears are selling on rallies.

The bears tried to tug the price below the $495 support on Aug. 12, but the bulls successfully defended the level. Buyers are again trying to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair will attempt a move toward $600.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $495, it will suggest intense selling pressure. The pair may slump to $460, which is an important level to watch out for because a break below it may start a downtrend to $400.

Solana price analysis

The failure of the bulls to maintain Solana (SOL) above the moving averages suggests that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand.

Sellers will try to pull the price to $129 and then to $116. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $116 level because a break and close below it will signal the start of a downward move to $100 and then $80.

Instead, if the price turns up from the current level or the support zone, it will suggest that the bulls are aggressively buying at lower levels. A break above $164 could propel the SOL/USDT pair to $189.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) turned down and broke below the 20-day EMA ($0.57) on Aug. 11, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening.

The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that the XRP/USDT pair may remain inside the $0.41 to $0.64 range for some more time. There is minor support at the 50-day SMA ($0.53), but if this level crumbles, the pair may plummet to $0.46.

Alternatively, if buyers push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair may climb to $0.64. This is a crucial resistance to watch out for because a break and close above it will clear the path for a rally to $0.74.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) pulled back to the 20-day EMA ($0.11) on Aug. 11, but the bulls could not overcome this barrier.

A minor advantage for the bulls is that they did not allow the price to dip below $0.10. This suggests that every minor dip is being purchased. Buyers are again attempting to shove the price above the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the DOGE/USDT pair may rise to the downtrend line.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA and breaks below $0.10, it will suggest that the bears are in control. The pair may slump to $0.09 and eventually to $0.08.

Toncoin price analysis

Buyers could not push Toncoin (TON) above the 50-day SMA ($6.97), indicating selling at higher levels.

The 20-day EMA ($6.41) has flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to push the price above the 50-day SMA to gain the upper hand. The TON/USDT pair may then rally to $7.65 and eventually to $8.29.

The immediate support on the downside is $6. If this level cracks, the selling may pick up, and the pair could drop to $5.26.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.36) on Aug. 10, indicating that minor relief rallies are being sold into.

The bears will try to pull the price to $0.31 and, after that, to the critical support at $0.24. Buyers are expected to defend this level with all their might because a slide below it may sink the ADA/USDT pair to $0.20 and $0.18.

Instead, if the price continues higher and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bulls are on a comeback. The pair could then rise to the downtrend line. If bulls overcome this barrier, it will signal the start of a new up move.