The launch of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could see the cryptocurrency outperform Bitcoin (BTC) in the weeks after they go live in the United States, say K33 Research analysts.
The ETFs, expected to launch as soon as July 8, are a “golden egg” for ETH’s price, while Bitcoin is set to face selling pressure as $8.5 billion worth is returned to creditors of collapsed exchange Mt. Gox starting this week, K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman said in a July 2 report.
ETH has underperformed against Bitcoin for over a year, with the latter posting market-leading gains bolstered by over $14 billion in flows to Bitcoin exchange-traded products this year.
Lunde and Zimmerman expect ETH “to stumble immediately following the launch of the ETFs” but noted — like what later happened with Bitcoin — that inflows to the funds would likely bolster ETH’s price.
“ETFs are a solid catalyst for relative ETH strength as the summer progresses and flows accumulate, and I firmly view current ETH/BTC prices as a bargain for the patient trader,” Lunde wrote.
“We maintain a bullish ETH outlook in anticipation of net inflows equivalent to 0.75-1% of ETH’s circulating supply in the five months following the launch.”
The analysts said the market still “stubbornly” disagrees with their position, pointing to Ether futures trading at a relative discount to Bitcoin futures and the price of ETH relative to the price of Bitcoin trading at a rate of 1 ETH to 0.055 BTC.
The value of ETH has been charting a steady decline compared to Bitcoin for the past 12 months, falling to a yearly low of 0.045 on May 24.
The price of Ether relative to Bitcoin reversed quickly following the SEC’s sudden decision to approve Ether ETFs which surprised analysts and saw ETH/BTC tick up to its present value of 0.055, per TradingView data.
Despite this, Lunde and Zimmerman said Ether futures open interest was “relentless,” showing that many traders are taking on high amounts of leverage to bet on ETH’s potential price action heading into the launch of the ETFs.
