Bitcoin (BTC) hurtles into week three of July above $60,000 as fresh BTC strength delivers a sentiment turnaround — can it last?
The largest cryptocurrency is exciting traders once again after geopolitical events over the weekend, with gains since July 12 now at 10%.
What could have turned out to be a knee-jerk reaction that ended with the weekly candle close has instead formed the foundation for further BTC price upside. The question for market participants now, however, is where support truly lies.
Such a move has been long coming — traders and analysts alike have watched BTC/USD plumb four-month lows and repeatedly fail to reclaim the $60,000 mark.
Now with that process tentatively complete, other key price levels are coming back into play.
There is, however, always a risk of bulls running out of steam at the hands of manipulative market entities or simply due to a lack of consistent bid demand — something this week’s Wall Street trading sessions will no doubt determine.
Geopolitics could yet provide another curveball, along with macroeconomic factors, which start immediately this week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve, will offer more insight into inflation expectations on July 15, while US jobs data will follow later on.
Meanwhile, the uptick in price is transforming the landscape when it comes to Bitcoin network fundamentals. After successive difficulty drops, the network could see a 4% increase in the coming days.
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at these topics and more in the weekly rundown of key points of debate when it comes to BTC price performance.
BTC price rise: Too good to be true?
If $60,000 were not enough for Bitcoin bulls, BTC/USD went on to gain another 3.5% after the weekly close.
Itself an impressive $60,800, the close set up a run, which so far has seen $63,000 come back into play, per the latest data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Unsurprisingly, traders greeted that surge, which cemented both the $60,000 and important levels nearby, with considerable relief.
“Entering back in the original 60-72k range with what looks like deviation,” popular trader Roman wrote in one of his latest updates on X (formerly Twitter).
“We have an RSI level we haven’t seen since $25k, which in my opinion, suggests that the correction would be over.”
Roman referenced relative strength index (RSI) signals, currently “oversold” to an extent last observed nearly a year ago.
Like others, however, he acknowledged that the breakout and upward continuation may simply be too easy.
“My concern is LTF volume + weekend pump,” he explained, referring to a lack of low-timeframe trading activity and the genesis of Bitcoin’s rebound coming out of hours, without the participation of “TradFi” traders.
Overly bearish positions nonetheless felt the pressure overnight, with liquidations taking their toll on crypto shorters.
According to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, these totaled $93.5 million for the 24 hours to the time of writing.
CoinGlass additionally showed a cloud of overhead ask liquidity centered around $63,500.
Zooming out, however, some longtime market observers saw room for optimism. Checkmate, creator of analytics platform Checkonchain, noted that Bitcoin had successfully absorbed sell-side pressure from entities including the German government.
“Folks, Bitcoin just absorbed a 50k $BTC market sell order in a few weeks. It dipped ~25%, in a very structured and orderly correction,” he told X followers on the day.
“Last time something like this happened was LUNA selling ~80k $BTC and price dropped from $46k to $25k, and soon after to $17k. Not the same.”
Fed’s Powell kicks off macro week
The macroeconomic week gets off to a brisk start with Fed Chair Powell appearing at a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
Amid mixed inflation data last week, markets will be paying close attention to Powell’s language when it comes to cues over how US financial policy might change going forward.
The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), due at the end of the month, is not currently slated to deliver an interest rate cut — the key event being watched for by risk-asset traders.
Instead, it is the September FOMC gathering which remains the crunch moment for policy to shift to a firmly “easier” stance.
“All eyes are on the Fed and the start of earnings season,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X summary, referencing major firms’ upcoming earnings reports.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a September rate cut in some form at 94.3% as of July 15. This month’s odds, by contrast, are just 4.7%.
“The market is now pricing in 2-3 Fed rate cuts before the end of the year and 4 more cuts in 2025,” Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, observed.
Bitcoin hashrate stages a serious comeback
The change in price behavior is already making itself felt across Bitcoin network fundamentals.
After three successive downward adjustments, mining difficulty is finally due to begin a recovery of its own.
While this will depend on price strength sustaining, current estimates of a 4% uptick on July 18 offer hope to those concerned about miner health.
Hashrate is bolstering the bullish view for the future, already challenging all-time highs, per raw data from monitoring resource MiningPoolStats.
“Bitcoin is back over $62K and miners have risen out of Purgatory and are finally looking at Hell from outside again,” Bob Burnett, founder and CEO at Bitcoin mining firm Barefoot Mining, responded.
A look at the hash ribbons metric, which compares 30-day and 60-day rolling hashrate changes, suggests that a “capitulation” phase among miners could soon end. The last such phase, as Cointelegraph reported, was in August 2023 — a period which signalled a long-term BTC price bottom below $30,000.
“When hashrate reverts, Hash Ribbons will print one of the most historically reliable bitcoin buy signals ever seen. And we're close to that signal,” market analyst Cole Garner predicted last month.
Hedge fund trader: New BTC price all-time high by August
When it comes to BTC price predictions, the participation of traditional financial figures rarely passes the crypto community by.
This week, it is hedge fund trader Josh Man making waves on social media, making a daring forecast of new all-time highs for BTC/USD by the end of July.
In a video update uploaded to X, Man likewise conjured August 2023 as the starting point of a bullish trendline,which BTC/USD is now once again attempting to reclaim.
“Now we spent the better part of a month through here and below it,” he said, adding that he “would expect it works out” when it comes to the reclaim.
On where BTC price action should go next, however, Man was distinctly bullish, confirming:
“We’ll hit a new all-time high this month, probably about ten days from now.”
In subsequent X activity, he stipulated that it would indeed be before August that the new record will hit, this requiring a price above $73,800.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index doubles
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is transforming by the day, and as a lagging indicator, may not yet capture when could be the return of “greed” to the market.
After tagging “extreme fear” just days ago, the Index is back at 52/100.
While this corresponds to “neutral,” the full extent of the latest BTC price rebound is not yet reflected in its readings.
Examining market behavior, research firm Santiment called a sea change in the role of geopolitical events as performance catalysts going forward.
“Regardless of your political stance (or lack thereof), note how much these types of market reactions will continue on any notable US political news for at least the rest of 2024, especially in an always speculative-driven sector like cryptocurrency,” it summarized.
Santiment argued that there is an “undeniable” bullish bias attached to Donald Trump as a US Presidential candidate, something clearly visible throughout 2024.
An accompanying chart showed both BTC/USD performance, as well as the memecoin dedicated to Trump, MAGA (TRUMP).
