Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied to $65,000 on July 16 after the traders’ fear over the German government selling BTC cooled off. However, there are fears that Bitcoin price may drop to $58,000 as Mt. Gox began moving $6 billion worth of coins from its cold wallet to various addresses.
Despite this, market analysts believe Bitcoin’s “post-halving” growth trajectory is still in play.
Let’s look at some of the reasons why analysts think that the Bitcoin bull market is still underway.
The Coinbase premium flips positive
Bitcoin’s definitive breakout above $65,000 may come sooner than expected as spot buying on Coinbase Pro has been increasing.
According to FalconX Research, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the gap between BTC price on Coinbase Pro and Binance, has flipped positive and risen to 0.1%, “levels last seen in mid-May.”
This means, buying at Coinbase appears to be strengthening compared with other exchanges like Binance.
A positive reading on the Coinbase Premium Index could be a precursor to long-term support. Conversely, a negative premium indicates strong spot selling at Coinbase.
FalconX Research head of research David Lawant believes that Bitcoin price is gearing up for a “massive rally” similar to that witnessed between October 2023 and March this year when BTC rallied approximately 170% from $26,000 to set a new all-time high at $73,835.
“Something tells me the next 6-12 months will be splendid—and probably volatile.”
Increasing capital flows into Bitcoin investment products
Another factor that is making traders believe that BTC’s bull run is not over is the continued inflows into Bitcoin investment products.
“Cumulative Net ETF Flows reached a new ATH last week,” declared author and independent analyst Timothy Peterson in a July 15 post on the X social media platform.
Peterson was referring to the seven-day streak of positive flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which brought the cumulative inflows to a record high of $16.11 billion, according to data from Farside Investors.
Peterson said that with this metric, he is pricing Bitcoin at $71,000. This means that increasing demand from institutional investors is likely to positively impact BTC’s price.
Putting this into context, Bitwise Senior investment strategist Juan Leon said that the over $16 billion inflows into spot BTC ETFs in the six-month period since their launch on Jan. 11 “is more than the sovereign capital flows into any country during H2 2023.”
Leon explained that “strong institutional demand for #BTC is being driven not only by spot BTC ETFs (>$15B inflows), but also by CME BTC futures which hit new highs in Q2.”
Similarly, the latest Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report by CoinShares revealed that Bitcoin asset investment products saw the fifth-largest weekly inflows on record, logging $1.347 billion inflows during the week ending July 12, bringing year-to-date inflows to a record $17.221 billion.
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill attributed the high inflows to the recent drawdown in BTC price to $53,000, saying that investors took advantage of Bitcoin “price weakness” to buy more on the dips.
“We believe price weakness due to the German Government Bitcoin sales and a turnaround in sentiment due to lower than expected CPI in the US prompted investors to add to positions.”
Bitcoin bounces off its post-halving range
From a technical point of view, anonymous Bitcoin analyst, Rekt Capital, argued that Bitcoin’s latest retest of $65,000 had resulted in a significant change in trend.
Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the “Post-Halving ReAccumulation Range,” Rekt Capital said in a July 16 post on X.
The analyst was referring to BTC’s trading range in the weeks following the Bitcoin halving event that occurred in April.
“The importance of this reclaim cannot be understated”
Analysts at crypto data provider Ecoinometrics said that three months after the halving, Bitcoin was trading at the bottom of the growth range.
“Almost three months after the fourth halving, it is time for something to happen,” they declared, setting ambitious targets for Bitcoin price.
“Well, assuming the same growth rate as the past three cycles, we would expect one BTC to be worth between $140,000 and $4,500,000 per coin, starting from $63,000.”
