Bitcoin (BTC) faces a battle for a key bull market trendline, which it lost for the first time in nearly a year in June.
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows BTC price action retesting the short-term holder (STH) realized price.
BTC price sends short-term holders into the black
Bitcoin STH activity is a key point of reference during bull markets, as the aggregate cost basis of this speculatory hodler cohort often forms long-term price support.
The same has been true since the latest bull market began in early 2023 — BTC/USD only dipped below the STH realized price for brief periods.
Now, another dip is coming to an end. STH entities, defined as those hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or less, are no longer doing so at a loss.
“Recently, the Bitcoin price has reclaimed the STH Realized Price,” CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn wrote in one of its Quicktake blog posts on July 18.
“This is a positive sign because short-term holders often add to their positions when Bitcoin returns to their average cost basis, creating a support level.”
Maartunn additionally noted that “since 2023, Bitcoin has reclaimed the short-term holder Realized Price twice, each time resulting in at least 30% profits.”
The exact level of the STH realized price varies according to the source, with CryptoQuant’s estimate being slightly lower than some others.
"Across the last 30-days, the Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort experienced a dramatic decline in profitability, with more than -66% of their supply moving into an unrealized loss," onchain analytics firm Glassnode wrote in the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, "The Week Onchain," published July 16.
"This is one of the largest declines in STH profitability on record. This suggests that a significant number of 'top buyers' have seen their portfolio profitability challenged in recent weeks."
Glassnode put the STH realized price at $64,300 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin trader warns over low volumes
The area around $65,000 nonetheless remains a key target for bulls to flip to support next.
Among those seeing good odds of upside continuation is a well-known trader and former fund manager Aksel Kibar.
“This is the 5th month $BTCUSD is not backing off from the strong resistance around 65K,” he told followers on X (formerly Twitter) on the day.
“I see this as very bullish long-term. Sticking to a resistance and no intention of selling off is usually a sin of pending breakout.”
On daily timeframes, popular crypto trader JT argued that BTC/USD needed to break through several Fibonnaci retracement levels, currently holding it back, for a shot at new all-time highs.
In a word of caution, JT added that volume was "notable" in being the opposite of that seen during the recent BTC price four-month lows near $53,000.
"Volume was extreme into this pump off of the $53K low. It has now dropped precipitously. We are now below average volume profiles," part of his commentary read.