Bitcoin (BTC) has three months to go until the bull market resumes — but can still see 300% gains by 2026.
Those are some of the conclusions of fresh BTC price analysis from the pseudonymous engineer known as Apsk32.
BTC price "acceleration" not due for at least 3 months
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on July 9, Apsk32 returned to his Power Law metric to chart likely Bitcoin market performance in the years to come.
The Power Law essentially provides a lower BTC price support band which has held since BTC/USD traded at just $1. Several other bands, or “time contours,” provide additional price information, ultimately giving a $1 million price target for 2036.
“Time contours tell us how long it will be before the support forces current prices upwards. For 12 years, every bear market has returned to this support line,” part of a previous X post from June explains.
“The support passes one million dollars in 2036 and bitcoin isn't stopping there.”
Now, relaying past price action onto the current four-year cycle, as defined by Apsk32, is helping to explain current market behavior — including the ongoing 25% drop from March’s $73,800 all-time highs.
“If bitcoin's cycle pattern continues, price should remain inside or near this blue cloud,” the latest post summarized.
“The ETFs pushed us out of the cloud and now we're reverting back. We're 3+ months away from upwards acceleration and we could see prices go up 4x by the end of 2025.”
An accompanying chart shows the so-called “Power Law Fractal Cloud” — a guideline range for BTC/USD going forward.
“Does the price have to stay within the cloud? Absolutely not,” Apsk32 acknowledged.
“This time could be different, in fact it already is.”
Bitcoin "moving from weak to strong hands"
As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin traders are poised for further BTC price downside as a feeling of fear takes over across crypto.
Sub-$50,000 levels have returned to the radar, these again bringing the current drawdown in line with those past.
Sources of optimism meanwhile include reduced selling by Bitcoin miners over the past month, along with a return to net inflows for the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The latter saw inflows of nearly $300 million on July 8, marking their best single-day tally in over a month, per data from sources including United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside Investors.
"Looks like the boomers & institutions are buying the dip here, while Germany offloads a bunch of coins," popular trader Jelle wrote in part of a response, contrasting ETF buying with BTC sales by the German government.
"Coins moving from weak, to strong hands."