Bitcoin needs to breach $70K, ETH $4K, for altseason start: Arthur Hayes

The holistic rally of the altcoin sector, also known as altseason, could be delayed until 2025, depending on key price levels from the world’s two largest cryptocurrencies.

For the altcoin segment to start its bullish rally, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) need to reclaim key psychological levels, according to Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of Bitmex and CIO of Maelstrom Fund.

Hayes wrote in an Aug. 12 research note:

“Alt szn will return only after Bitcoin and Ether decidedly break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively… The combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally into year-end will create a strong foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin soiree.”

Bitcoin and Ether prices are recovering from last week’s $510 billion crypto market sell-off, which saw the two cryptocurrencies correct to their February lows.

Bitcoin fell below a key post-halving growth trajectory when it fell under $63,000, but recovering the trendline before the end of 2024 cut put Bitcoin back on track to the $100,000 mark, based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles.

Bitcoin price’s next stop is $100,000, says Hayes

The post-halving growth trajectory is in line with Hayes’ predictions, who also expects Bitcoin to breach the $100,000 mark during this cycle.

This will mainly be catalyzed by the issuance of Treasury bills (T-bills) that could inject new liquidity into crypto markets, wrote Hayes:

“Therefore, taking Bad Gurl Yellen’s word, we know that $301bn of T-bills will be net issued between now and year-end. If this relationship holds true, Bitcoin will quickly retrace the dump caused by the yen strengthening. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000.”

However, Bitcoin is currently struggling to rise above the $60,000 psychological mark, as Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows continue to stagnate.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed a cumulative $27.8 million worth BTC on Aug. 12, but saw over $89 million worth of cumulative inflows on Aug. 9, according to Farside Investors data.

Solana price to $250 during next altcoin season?

The Solana (SOL) token, currently the world’s fifth-largest cryptocurrency, could rally to the $250 mark during the next altcoin season.

Bitcoin surpassing the $70,000 psychological mark could also invite more investment into Solana, according to Hayes, who wrote:

“Solana will also climb over $250, but the crypto market-wide wealth effect of a Solana pump is nowhere near as potent as with Bitcoin and Ether, given the relative market caps.”

However, Solana’s price is currently 42% down from its all-time high of $259 reached in Nov. 2021, three years ago.