Bitcoin needs 'low $40,000s' for best bull market entry — 10x Research

Bitcoiners should wait on the sidelines until the asset’s price falls to the low $40,000 zon to get the best entry price ahead of the next bull run, according to a crypto market analyst.

“To ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s,” 10x Research head of Research Markus Thielen wrote in a Aug. 7 report viewed by Cointelegraph.

“We would then expect another major rally attempt,” Thielen told Cointelegraph.

The last time Bitcoin was within this range was Feb. 6, trading at $42,577, according to CoinMarketCap data.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin (BTC) is valued at $56,848, down 12.89% since July 31.

Thielen isn’t alone. Other analysts also think Bitcoin could fall into the $40,000s in the next few months. 

“$40k and $80k equally likely in the next 60 days,” Cane Island Alternative Advisors founder Timothy Peterson wrote in an Aug. 5 X post.

“If Bitcoin breaks this support, $40k is next,” Crypto Rover told his 808,400 X followers.

“I’d love to see Bitcoin drop to $50K, or even $40K. That would be a perfect opportunity to scoop up some more,” Gokhstein Media founder David Gokhstein added.

Thielen is skeptical of HODLing being a safe bet

While $60,000 had been a solid support level for Bitcoin since March, but it’s now slipped below that threshold for two consecutive days.

With expected near-term volatility, Thielen advises against a buy-and-hold strategy, noting that Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) currently don’t offer the same high risk-reward ratio seen recently in United States stock markets.

“Neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum is exhibiting the steady, high Sharpe ratio uptrends that US stock market investors have enjoyed with minimal effort,” Thielen stated.

However, Thielen still believes Bitcoin’s current price could pose a buying opportunity, but suggests putting a stop loss at $54,000, as the “risk remains to the downside.”

“Especially since we have seen three consecutive days of outflows from the ETFs which do not appear to be buying this dip,” he explained.

Investors in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), launched on Jan. 11, are now “underwater” since the average price is “around $60,000,” Thielen pointed out.

“Given Bitcoin's current downtrend, retail investors, who often follow trends, may hesitate to engage in massive buy-the-dip ETF flows,” he added.

He was “astounded” that despite $17 million pouring into spot Bitcoin ETFs since launch, Bitcoin dropped below $50,000 on Aug. 5, edging closer to its Jan. 11 launch day price of $46,656.